Rent vs Buy — Buying is cheaper…but what are the risks?

Though the gap is narrowing, buying costs less than renting in all 100 large U.S. metros. But uncertainty about future home price appreciation means buying isn’t always a safe bet.

Homeownership remains cheaper than renting nationally and in all of the 100 largest metro areas. Rising mortgage rates and home prices have narrowed the gap over the past year, though rates have recently dropped and price gains are slowing. Now, at a 30-year fixed rate of 4.5%, buying is 38% cheaper than renting nationally, versus being 44% cheaper one year ago. See Trulia’s full report HERE.

 

Dose of Reality — Actual Employment Numbers from 2013

It’s not until March of every year job growth is reported from the previous calendar year.  And this year, the revisions to the California labor market were substantial. In January, the EDD reported that 244,000 jobs were created in the California during 2013. This month, the EDD issued its revisions and our state actually created 447,400 jobs last year—an 83% change in the revised jobs total! READ MORE.

Employment Numbers - 2013

Jumbo Mortgage News

Jumbo mortgages are those that exceed the $417,000 (or
$625,500) limit. The limit is set by the government backed
lending agencies, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, who
guarantee the loans against default by the borrower.
Typically, jumbo mortgage rates are higher than conforming
rates, traditionally by 0.25 percent or more, because they
have not been eligible for purchase by Fannie or Freddie, and
lenders making such loans would have to portfolio them.

The era of defaults and foreclosures is largely over, for now.
And with home prices rising, even soaring in many areas,
lenders are more confortable with larger loan amounts on
single transactions.
Currently, the conforming rate for a 30 year loan in Southern
California is 4.32 percent. A jumbo loan is currently priced at
4.24 percent. READ MORE.

What we’re reading: “FAILURE TO PASS A BUDGET OR TO RAISE THE DEBT CEILING: WHICH IS WORSE? by Mark Schniepp

800,000 federal workers went on furlough October 1, 2013,
as a result of the federal government’s inability to adopt a
new fiscal year budget. This is certainly going to produce
a negative impact on the spending habits of these federal
workers, but just how much?

A Forecast of Interest:

The forecast for general economic growth over the next 9
months assumes an acceleration in homebuilding and home
buying. And for the first half of 2013, new housing starts and
new home purchases were steadily rising, consistent with a
recovery gaining momentum.
However, both of these indicators have backed off now,
though existing home sales throughout the U.S. remain
strong.

Read more HERE

Going up? News on Housing Price Gains

Home prices rose in nearly 90 percent of all U.S. housing markets during the 2nd quarter of 2013, according to the National Association of Realtors. Why you ask? Tight inventory continues to drive up home prices across the country. Specifically in California, Sacramento, Las Vegas, San Francisco, and Los Angeles. One of the major reasons inventory has been so limited is that millions of homeowners have not financially been able to offload their homes without taking a loss, be it an out-of-pocket expense on the loan at closing or a credit loss associated with a strategic default. READ MORE

Mid-Year Economic Assessment 2013

On the up side: The million-plus jobs added to the U.S. economy during the first half of 2013 is contributing to a more vibrant retail and housing sector, and U.S. travel and
tourism spending will reach an all time record high this year. And with more people now working, the stock market rising sharply this year and housing values soaring, consumers are feeling wealthier in 2013, and that’s supporting retail store sales, auto purchases, home purchases, and spending on travel.

In Summary: Expect the sluggish growth in the U.S. economy to continue
through the summer. Ditto the performance of the U.S. Stock Market. The creation of jobs will accelerate later this year. QE3 will likely remain unchanged, at least into September if
not later into the 4th Quarter of 2013. Longer term interest rates will stay low but not retreat any further. Inflation is likely to average between 2.0 and 2.3 percent this year.

Read more HERE

All is well so far for 2013: Economic growth is stable across the country

According to Mark Schniepp’s California Forecast: Unemployment rates are falling, employment and income are rising, and housing markets are rebounding nearly everywhere. Despite sequestration, high gasoline prices, higher taxes in January, and a sluggish manufacturing sector, the economic indicators to date are generally moving in a positive direction.

So, what’s next?

Housing will be a key factor in the growth of the economy
next quarter and for the remainder of 2013. It should be
especially important in California.